Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a76…ddd4 crypto 344 markets active 0h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$481 (-6%) realized −$485 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%313W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$22
14 days+$8
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$72
sports 12% −$274
other 8% +$8
finance 4% +$5
politics 3% −$55
world 1% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 195 -2.8% -12.1% 95% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 328 -7.0% -15.9% 91% 0% -26.6%
all 342 -1.6% -11.0% 92% 4% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -14.9%
10% -19.5% 4% -23.0%
15% -27.3% 4% -30.5%
20% -34.4% 3% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$49 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$485
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses313 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)342 / 344
History coverage237d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+5%)
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $48 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $29 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $29 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $30 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $16 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 22h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 29h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 29h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.95 · official $102.95 (match) · 2158 history records