Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a76…73b9 other 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 212L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$23
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$35
sports 22% −$19
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$3
world 4% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 223 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)223 / 224
History coverage127d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $334 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $696 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $312 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $439 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $276 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $720 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $424 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $187 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $367 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $113 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $114 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $364 −$3 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $329 $0 +0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $272 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $134 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 5h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 7h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 9h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 11h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 14h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 16h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $20 16h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 20h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 21h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 23h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 23h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 24h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 29h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 30h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 31h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 36h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 38h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 39h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 40h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 46h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.38 · official $49.38 (match) · 1312 history records