trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +63.2% | +47.7% | 100% | 100% | +41.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +34.1% | +21.3% | 78% | 78% | +29.6% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +33.1% | +20.5% | 80% | 80% | +25.9% |
| all | 19 | +17.6% | +6.4% | 79% | 58% | +2.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +6.4% | 58% | +2.4% |
| 10% | -3.8% | 58% | -7.4% |
| 15% | -13.1% | 37% | -16.3% |
| 20% | -21.6% | 26% | -24.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | $1,002 | $1,020 | +$18 (+2%) |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | $729 | $786 | +$57 (+8%) |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 90¢ | $338 | $360 | +$22 (+6%) |
| Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) | Netherlands | 73¢ | 72¢ | $110 | $109 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 51¢ | 50¢ | $77 | $75 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 25 | $101 | +$56 | +56% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 24 | $101 | +$71 | +70% |
| Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 | Jun 23 | $52 | +$48 | +93% |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | Jun 23 | $155 | +$45 | +29% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $152 | +$83 | +55% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 | Jun 20 | $76 | +$59 | +78% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $54 | −$2 | -4% |
| Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score | Jun 18 | $26 | −$26 | -99% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO | Jun 13 | $1,006 | +$394 | +39% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Mar 31 | $469 | +$115 | +25% |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Mar 25 | $220 | −$220 | -100% |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | Mar 14 | $1,031 | +$69 | +7% |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | Mar 08 | $1,040 | +$260 | +25% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Mar 01 | $234 | +$15 | +6% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da | Feb 27 | $400 | +$97 | +24% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jan 30 | $392 | +$9 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | Dec 05 | $500 | +$247 | +50% |
| Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden | Nov 06 | $1,630 | −$190 | -12% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Oct 08 | $1,000 | +$5 | +0% |