Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4A 0x4a73…2366 crypto 354 markets active 17h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+1%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate69%244W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$22
14 days+$13
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$113
sports 15% −$101
weather 4% −$6
other 1% +$8
world 1% −$10
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -14.9% -23.0% 57% 49% -11.7%
≤30d 291 -7.3% -16.2% 71% 57% -8.8%
≤90d 300 -8.1% -16.8% 70% 55% -9.2%
all 354 -7.3% -16.2% 69% 55% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 55% -9.4%
10% -24.2% 24% -18.1%
15% -31.5% 13% -26.0%
20% -38.2% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses244 / 110
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)354 / 354
History coverage95d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 354 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $139 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $305 +$100 +33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +65%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$4 +65%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $17 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $17 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 796 history records