Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:41:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
4A 0x4a72…c545 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$47 (+16%) realized +$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$32
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$30
sports 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +61.6% +46.2% 33% 33% +4.4%
≤30d 25 +45.0% +31.2% 36% 36% +4.5%
≤90d 25 +45.0% +31.2% 36% 36% +4.5%
all 25 +45.0% +31.2% 36% 36% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.2% 36% +4.5%
10% +18.6% 36% -5.5%
15% +7.2% 36% -14.6%
20% -3.3% 28% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +110% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$6 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)25 / 30
History coverage11d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$14 +55%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 +$27 +2600%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 7d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 7d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 9d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.44 · official $34.44 (match) · 39 history records