Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a6c…db2a other 223 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%8W / 214L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$23
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$35
sports 24% −$15
politics 10% −$6
economics 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
culture 5% −$5
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 222 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses8 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 223
History coverage125d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $190 −$2 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $232 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $338 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $123 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $291 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $251 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $718 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $435 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $339 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $257 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $225 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $321 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $768 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $431 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $387 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $224 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $317 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 32m
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 2h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 5h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 7h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 7h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 8h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 13h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 14h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $56 16h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $56 17h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 19h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 20h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 26h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 27h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 28h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 29h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 31h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 32h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $57 35h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $57 37h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 38h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 40h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $24 41h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $25 43h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 43h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 45h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.46 · official $55.46 (match) · 1254 history records