Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a69…1ba5
sports · 161 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$32 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses86 / 74
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage97d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? May 14 $1 +$1 +59%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 12 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 +$1 +54%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 May 07 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $10 −$3 -34%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 05 $1 +$7 +650%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 05 $5 +$3 +62%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund leading at halftime? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $8 −$7 -88%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 +$3 +276%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 −$5 -99%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 May 03 $11 +$4 +34%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 $0 +42%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 +$7 +340%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $5 +$2 +41%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $2 +$1 +31%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $10 +$4 +42%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 28 $5 −$5 -97%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5 Apr 28 $10 −$5 -50%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $10 +$6 +60%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $5 $0 +2%
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $10 −$6 -64%
Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $1 $0 -45%
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Draw at halftime? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $4 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$30
other 26% −$3
world 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 3h
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $1 25d
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 26d
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 29d
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 29d
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $2 30d
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $1 30d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 30d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 31d
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $3 31d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 33d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 33d
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $2 33d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 33d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 36d
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 36d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $7 37d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 78¢ $10 37d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 37d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 38d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 38d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 38d
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 39d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 39d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 39d
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 39d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 39d
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +41.6% +28.1% 100% 100% +28.1%
≤30d 5 -39.9% -45.6% 40% 40% -39.4%
≤90d 159 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 50% -14.5%
all 160 -0.8% -10.2% 54% 50% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 50% -14.4%
10% -18.8% 49% -22.6%
15% -26.7% 36% -30.0%
20% -33.9% 26% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.02 · official $2.02 (match) · 347 history records