Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a69…228f other 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,853 (-24%) realized −$2,442 · open −$411
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%62W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3,091now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days−$2
30 days−$1,688
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$2,635
other 25% +$183
world 9% +$19
economics 2% −$22
culture 2% −$66
finance 2% −$123
tech 2% −$18
sports 2% −$22
crypto 1% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +50.1% +35.8% 100% 100% +35.8%
≤30d 24 +17.2% +6.0% 62% 58% -59.1%
≤90d 28 +19.4% +8.0% 64% 61% -55.6%
all 131 -10.4% -19.0% 47% 47% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 47% -35.2%
10% -26.7% 46% -41.4%
15% -33.8% 44% -47.1%
20% -40.3% 34% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$69 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$3,091
Realized−$2,442
Unrealized−$411
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses62 / 69
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)131 / 149
History coverage300d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $1,635 $1,094 −$541 (-33%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? No 86¢ 84¢ $608 $593 −$15 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 11¢ 16¢ $229 $323 +$94 (+41%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $131 $161 +$30 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $138 $111 −$27 (-20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $73 $96 +$23 (+32%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 86¢ $65 $91 +$26 (+40%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 86¢ $65 $87 +$22 (+34%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 53¢ 54¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $89 $58 −$31 (-34%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 42¢ $35 $49 +$14 (+40%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $71 $49 −$22 (-32%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 72¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+51%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 54¢ 58¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+8%)
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $81 +$41 +50%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Will voter turnout be 54-57% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o Jun 01 $59 +$90 +153%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $21 −$19 -94%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 01 $25 +$14 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $27 +$79 +291%
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $22 +$42 +192%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco May 31 $301 +$31 +10%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $303 −$302 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $1,534 −$1,530 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 31 $240 −$239 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $49 +$20 +41%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 31 $66 +$26 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $78 +$35 +45%
CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5 May 29 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 28 $26 +$16 +64%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 25 $30 +$47 +158%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 25 $63 +$28 +44%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? May 11 $75 +$37 +49%
Will Powell say "War" during March press conference? Mar 23 $15 +$19 +127%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference? Mar 23 $25 +$14 +54%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 20? Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference? Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 18 $60 +$35 +59%
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars? Mar 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will "Palestine" be said at the Oscars? Mar 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 15 $55 +$43 +78%
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Delcy" during Kentucky visit? Mar 15 $31 +$31 +100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 15 $30 +$22 +74%
Will Trump say "Obamacare" during Ohio visit? Mar 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 13 be between 2,600, Mar 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during Kentucky visit? Mar 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Pacto Histórico win 21-23 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 20 Mar 11 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 20 Mar 11 $22 +$75 +343%
Will Pacto Histórico win 18-20 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 20 Mar 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? Mar 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 8 be between 2,400,0 Mar 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Mar 08 $20 +$21 +106%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 08 $35 +$21 +61%
Will Marco Rubio visit Israel by March 2? Mar 08 $25 +$32 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 53¢ $62 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 54¢ $17 19h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 86¢ $611 19h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $237 20h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 28h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 54¢ $20 28h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 52¢ $31 28h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 43¢ $11 9d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $78 9d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $70 9d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $36 9d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 9d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 64¢ $66 9d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $66 9d
Will voter turnout be 54-57% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $14 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $73 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $75 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $91 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $134 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $141 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $8 10d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $289 19d
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o SELL Yes 97¢ $149 19d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? SELL Yes $1 19d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL Yes 95¢ $39 19d
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $106 19d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $401 20d
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 91¢ $63 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,091.04 · official $3,091.14 (match) · 238 history records