Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:52:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4A 0x4a69…e69a politics 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$94 (+1%) realized +$95 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate72%31W / 12L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$239
7 days−$274
14 days−$238
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% +$172
other 22% −$558
sports 4% +$69
finance 1% +$360
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.3% -13.4% 58% 33% -18.0%
≤30d 21 -5.4% -14.4% 71% 19% -13.7%
≤90d 43 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 21% -9.0%
all 43 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 21% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 21% -9.0%
10% -20.8% 12% -17.7%
15% -28.4% 9% -25.7%
20% -35.5% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$83 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses31 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage57d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $82 $80 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $111 +$55 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 −$202 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $222 +$88 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 −$41 -20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $301 −$41 -14%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $190 +$114 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $411 −$220 -54%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $391 +$19 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $361 +$21 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $331 +$30 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $106 +$7 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $211 +$16 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $203 +$8 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $290 +$12 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $271 +$20 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? May 29 $200 +$7 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? May 14 $330 −$63 -19%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026? May 13 $277 +$54 +20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026? May 12 $247 +$29 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 11, 2026? May 11 $231 +$16 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 09 $218 +$13 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026? May 07 $210 +$8 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026? May 06 $200 +$8 +4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 5, 2026? May 05 $211 +$16 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026? May 04 $265 +$23 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 2, 2026? May 03 $251 +$14 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 1, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? May 01 $221 +$30 +13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $201 +$19 +10%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $421 −$117 -28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $296 +$7 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $113 +$13 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $134 +$11 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $136 +$13 +10%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 23 $123 +$360 +294%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $82 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $111 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $222 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 54¢ $161 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 41h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $260 41h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $301 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $304 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $190 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $191 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $411 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $391 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $382 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $361 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $331 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $106 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $211 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $102 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $203 13d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 13d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $290 16d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $291 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 19d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $271 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.39 · official $280.39 (match) · 98 history records