Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4A 0x4a63…5b30 sports 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$263 (-1%) realized −$237 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%101W / 71L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$23
14 days−$909
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$458
other 7% −$1,052
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -32.1% -38.6% 38% 38% -20.3%
≤30d 100 -22.0% -29.4% 43% 36% -16.4%
≤90d 172 +5.5% -4.5% 59% 48% -12.3%
all 172 +5.5% -4.5% 59% 48% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 48% -12.3%
10% -13.7% 33% -20.7%
15% -22.0% 24% -28.3%
20% -29.6% 15% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$45 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$237
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses101 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions7
Markets (closed)172 / 179
History coverage63d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner T1 80¢ 100¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 24¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 44¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $10 −$5 -49%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $50 +$23 +46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +143%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$10 +191%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$34 +67%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $128 +$32 +25%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $303 −$221 -73%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
LoL: Deer Gaming vs The Ruddy Sack (BO5) - NLC Playoffs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$5 +51%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$4 -81%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $201 −$161 -80%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 24¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 94¢ $50 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 44¢ $10 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $50 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 98¢ $100 3h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS 10¢ $5 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL DK 87¢ $5 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY DK 88¢ $5 21h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY BUY KRX 59¢ $20 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $50 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 11d
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 11d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 84¢ $15 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.62 · official $249.62 (match) · 452 history records