Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4A 0x4a5d…17ad finance 366 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,060 (+13%) realized +$11,056 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate66%241W / 123L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$158
14 days−$36
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 62% +$6,315
other 24% +$4,373
tech 6% −$610
sports 4% +$497
crypto 4% −$276
politics 1% +$11
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.1% -8.6% 78% 44% -18.6%
≤30d 43 -3.2% -12.4% 63% 42% -8.4%
≤90d 229 +19.2% +7.9% 67% 44% +2.8%
all 364 +14.3% +3.4% 66% 45% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 45% +1.6%
10% -6.5% 35% -8.2%
15% -15.5% 28% -17.0%
20% -23.8% 21% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$61 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$11,056
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses241 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)364 / 366
History coverage140d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $98 $102 +$3 (+3%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 23¢ 24¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 21 $179 +$30 +16%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $198 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $204 +$161 +79%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $510 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 17 $182 +$42 +23%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $407 −$407 -100%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Jun 16 $109 −$51 -47%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$1 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $170 in June? Jun 15 $180 +$65 +36%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $76 +$18 +24%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $443 +$84 +19%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $37 +$26 +72%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $152 +$183 +120%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $27 −$21 -78%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $234 +$12 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $358 +$21 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $456 −$89 -20%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $53 +$11 +20%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 10 $523 +$31 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $84 −$82 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 09 $145 −$72 -50%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 07 $141 +$1 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $189 +$48 +26%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 05 $221 +$63 +29%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 4? Jun 05 $101 +$24 +24%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 4? Jun 05 $102 +$66 +65%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 4? Jun 04 $55 +$81 +149%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $31 −$6 -18%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $368 +$51 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $134 −$8 -6%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $73 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $85 +$54 +64%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$12 -72%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $13 +$3 +22%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $456 −$289 -64%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on May 28? May 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 28 $14 −$5 -38%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 28 $9 −$4 -42%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 28 $15 +$9 +61%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 in May? May 28 $22 $0 -1%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May? May 18 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? May 18 $90 −$42 -47%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December? May 18 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 18 $8 −$6 -71%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December? May 18 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 18 $188 −$74 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 23¢ $13 1h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 23¢ $98 1h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 24¢ $4 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 72¢ $209 7h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 76¢ $241 45h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 62¢ $28 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 62¢ $127 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 60¢ $1 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 59¢ $23 3d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 65¢ $212 3d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $510 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 3d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 37¢ $415 3d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 34¢ $198 4d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 32¢ $25 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? SELL No 90¢ $224 4d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 33¢ $51 4d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 28¢ $103 4d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $198 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 55¢ $204 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 61¢ $102 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 60¢ $102 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 56¢ $102 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 49¢ $102 5d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $39 6d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 6d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 6d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 6d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $170 in June? SELL No 76¢ $245 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.05 · official $115.05 (match) · 1973 history records