Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a5c…321d other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL −$1,059 (-4%) realized −$591 · open −$468
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate69%31W / 14L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$620per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,964
7 days−$3,965
14 days−$1,685
30 days−$1,218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$171
other 24% +$2,149
finance 13% −$3,267
tech 8% −$289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -47.3% -52.3% 10% 0% -32.6%
≤30d 36 +25.9% +13.9% 64% 50% -14.0%
≤90d 36 +25.9% +13.9% 64% 50% -14.0%
all 45 +25.8% +13.8% 69% 51% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 51% -11.9%
10% +2.9% 36% -20.3%
15% -7.0% 29% -28.0%
20% -16.1% 22% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$510) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$309 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$591
Unrealized−$468
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses31 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage175d
Avg bet$620
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $334 $21 −$313 (-94%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $137 $17 −$119 (-87%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? Yes 33¢ 7¢ $44 $9 −$35 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $5,737 +$303 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 18 $655 −$410 -63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 18 $1,029 −$951 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 18 $1,698 −$1,474 -87%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 18 $141 −$46 -33%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? Jun 18 $167 −$99 -59%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? Jun 18 $318 −$176 -55%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? Jun 18 $637 −$469 -74%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $5,125 −$642 -12%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? Jun 12 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? Jun 11 $34 +$14 +43%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 11 $96 −$8 -8%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 11 $543 +$30 +6%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 in June? Jun 11 $334 +$263 +79%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 in June? Jun 11 $510 +$289 +57%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in June? Jun 11 $268 +$86 +32%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 in June? Jun 10 $219 +$74 +34%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 10 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 10 $113 +$124 +110%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $104 +$447 +430%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? Jun 10 $46 −$39 -85%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 10 $199 +$401 +202%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 09 $162 +$70 +43%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 in June? Jun 09 $62 +$131 +212%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 in June? Jun 09 $134 +$100 +75%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 07 $345 +$39 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $34 +$4 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 07 $44 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 05 $360 +$236 +66%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 05 $241 +$21 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $331 +$29 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $3,644 +$235 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $906 +$132 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $99 +$20 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $199 +$51 +26%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 16 $53 +$29 +55%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 16 $81 +$13 +16%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 16 $24 +$20 +83%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 16 $272 +$40 +14%
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 15 $69 +$29 +41%
Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch? Jan 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $525 +$35 +7%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $3,001 +$291 +10%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 29 $403 −$9 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $2,706 44m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $243 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $2,463 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $52 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $78 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $180 13h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 14h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $68 14h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $142 14h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $168 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $2,241 25h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $42 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $104 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $254 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $118 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $2,100 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $800 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $18 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $254 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $255 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $170 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $148 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $842 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $54 6d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? SELL Yes 49¢ $52 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $537 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.44 · official $47.44 (match) · 509 history records