Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a5a…b6c6 crypto 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$245 (-2%) realized −$242 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%85W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$160
14 days−$294
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$616
weather 26% +$184
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -34.6% -40.9% 46% 25% -6.9%
≤30d 182 -33.1% -39.5% 46% 31% -11.3%
≤90d 190 -33.3% -39.7% 45% 31% -11.4%
all 190 -33.3% -39.7% 45% 31% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 31% -11.4%
10% -45.4% 22% -19.8%
15% -50.7% 14% -27.6%
20% -55.6% 11% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$242
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses85 / 105
Open positions2
Markets (closed)190 / 192
History coverage34d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $275 $262 −$13 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 19? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $144 $155 +$11 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $289 +$122 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $138 −$134 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $125 +$15 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$23 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $94 −$93 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $195 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$62 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $90 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1,077 +$166 +15%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $480 +$16 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $120 −$117 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $572 +$8 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$21 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $430 +$59 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$9 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $518 +$42 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $364 +$122 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $125 −$122 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $122 +$110 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 −$47 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $40 +$124 +314%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $31 −$13 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 48¢ $284 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 32¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $230 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $176 18h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $18 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $26 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $25 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 59¢ $18 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 65¢ $104 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 62¢ $32 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.19 · official $417.24 (match) · 733 history records