Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a59…bdcb weather 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate77%75W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$13
14 days−$158
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 75% −$133
crypto 14% +$21
tech 8% +$18
politics 2% +$80
world 1% −$86
sports 0% +$25
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +3.8% -6.1% 62% 32% -10.0%
≤30d 97 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 15% -11.0%
≤90d 97 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 15% -11.0%
all 97 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 15% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 15% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 12% -19.6%
15% -27.9% 8% -27.3%
20% -35.0% 7% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$37 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$774
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses75 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 101
History coverage11d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $297 $296 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? No 52¢ 50¢ $204 $198 −$6 (-3%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 52¢ 80¢ $100 $155 +$55 (+55%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? No 79¢ 98¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +31%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Jun 19 $219 +$10 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $64 −$26 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $104 −$77 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$38 +181%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$66 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$140 +135%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $101 −$86 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$62 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $547 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $501 +$17 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $512 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $112 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $79 −$75 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $492 +$21 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $188 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $504 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 52¢ $211 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $105 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $104 1h
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $57 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 26h
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 43h
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 43h
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 4¢ $38 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $64 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 13¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY No 79¢ $101 5d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $102 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 45¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $774.00 · official $777.92 (match) · 302 history records