Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a57…7943
politics · 45 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage317d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 0 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $42 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $5 $0 -6%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 18 $8 −$5 -67%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 14 $2 $0 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Aug 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 31 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% $0
other 24% $0
world 19% $0
sports 7% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 2% −$5
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $39 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $39 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $12 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $31 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $42 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $29 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $10 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $39 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 99¢ $1 174d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $11 175d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 205d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 207d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 232d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $49 232d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 232d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $49 232d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 232d
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 232d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $47 232d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 233d
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 233d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $47 233d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 233d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 302d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 45 -2.1% -11.4% 36% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records