Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4A 0x4a57…2c91 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 378d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$101 (-33%) realized −$101 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR46%break-even

Win rate46%11W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$18

7 days+$15

14 days−$24

30 days−$24

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +46%

net ROI/market (all)-4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+31.5%	+18.9%	58%	58%	-2.9%
≤30d	22	+13.5%	+2.7%	50%	50%	-18.3%
≤90d	22	+13.5%	+2.7%	50%	50%	-18.3%
all	24	+5.2%	-4.8%	46%	46%	-21.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.8%	46%	-21.6%
10%	-13.9%	33%	-29.1%
15%	-22.3%	29%	-36.0%
20%	-29.9%	25%	-42.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -1% → late +12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$101

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses11 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)24 / 29

History coverage378d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 24 Trades

no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?	Jun 29	$3	+$24	+784%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?	Jun 29	$4	−$4	-98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan?	Jun 29	$2	−$2	-97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan?	Jun 29	$1	−$1	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Jun 25	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$5	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$1	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$2	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$3	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$3	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$1	+22%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 24	$20	+$11	+54%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime?	Jun 24	$20	+$3	+15%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	Jun 23	$20	+$4	+21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	Jun 23	$21	+$50	+236%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$14	−$14	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 18	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June?	Jun 24	$1	−$1	-73%
Pacers vs. Thunder	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?	SELL Yes	100¢	$27	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	28¢	$4	2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	11h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	11h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$3	11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29	BUY	19¢	$5	11h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND	BUY	22¢	$15	11h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Wil	BUY	32¢	$2	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$21	4d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?	BUY Yes	70¢	$20	4d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?	BUY Yes	50¢	$10	4d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	4d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$8	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$5	5d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	99¢	$31	5d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	5d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	99¢	$23	5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	86¢	$20	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	BUY	19¢	$15	5d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$24	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $19.53 · 50 history records