Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:59:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a53…d5ed
crypto · 1860 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,445 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,445 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$4,445
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1115 / 604
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1719 / 1860
History coverage39d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day58.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1719 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,659
7 days−$5,056
14 days−$4,594
30 days−$4,547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 74¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$2 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 9AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 9AM ET Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$9 -11272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1PM ET Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1494%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$28 -39085%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1514%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$24 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $59 −$51 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9AM ET Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -3515%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$2 +1603%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$4 +4021%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$11 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11PM ET Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$27 -54984%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -2669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 11AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$23 -27618%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$32 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$6 -6655%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7PM ET Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +577%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$26 -43688%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 1AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,599
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 765 +32.3% +19.7% 60% 54% -53.7%
≤30d 1650 +21.6% +10.0% 65% 48% -32.6%
≤90d 1719 +21.3% +9.8% 65% 48% -29.3%
all 1719 +21.3% +9.8% 65% 48% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 48% -29.3%
10% ← realistic here -0.7% 36% -36.1%
15% -10.3% 27% -42.3%
20% -19.1% 21% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.53 · official $9.53 (match) · 3500 history records