Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a52…a42b crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$239 (-17%) realized −$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%47W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$162
7 days−$233
14 days−$234
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$81
other 38% −$55
sports 7% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -24.2% -31.5% 44% 42% -25.7%
≤30d 104 -16.7% -24.7% 45% 42% -24.5%
≤90d 104 -16.7% -24.7% 45% 42% -24.5%
all 104 -16.7% -24.7% 45% 42% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 42% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 40% -31.8%
15% -38.5% 35% -38.4%
20% -44.5% 28% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses47 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage7d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $120 +$40 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$5 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$4 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$5 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $133 +$61 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $90 +$43 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +142%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$11 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$199 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $69 58m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $133 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $90 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $9 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 264 history records