Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a52…c16a crypto 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$10 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%58W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$19
other 11% −$5
world 3% −$1
sports 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +81.9% +64.5% 88% 75% +64.9%
≤30d 25 +20.3% +8.9% 44% 40% +7.3%
≤90d 131 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 40% -12.8%
all 131 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 40% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 40% -12.8%
10% -27.0% 36% -21.2%
15% -34.0% 27% -28.8%
20% -40.5% 19% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses58 / 73
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions44
Markets (closed)131 / 175
History coverage66d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 68¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +202%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$9 +831%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 01 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 01 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 12 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 12 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 12 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 12 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 12 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 12 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 12 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 12 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 11h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 14d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 14d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 14d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 14d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 14d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 14d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 14d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 14d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 14d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 14d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 14d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.12 · official $57.13 (match) · 637 history records