Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a51…4ef6 crypto 361 markets active 7d ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (250 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$126 (+1%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%174W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day249.6pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$41
14 days−$403
30 days−$985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$605
sports 20% −$351
other 2% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (250 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.2% -3.9% 75% 75% -32.5%
≤30d 360 -12.9% -21.2% 48% 44% -14.8%
≤90d 360 -12.9% -21.2% 48% 44% -14.8%
all 360 -12.9% -21.2% 48% 44% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover249.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 44% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 38% -23.0%
15% -35.6% 31% -30.4%
20% -41.9% 24% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$31 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses174 / 186
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)360 / 361
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day249.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $34 +$6 +17%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $36 +$24 +67%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $83 −$73 -88%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -21%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $29 +$21 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $51 +$59 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +20%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +50%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 +$2 +72%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $64 +$31 +48%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$3 -94%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $28 −$27 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $9 +$11 +119%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $22 +$28 +124%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $34 +$6 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $4 +$6 +144%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $8 +$7 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $1 +$2 +317%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$4 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $3 +$2 +75%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $44 +$21 +47%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $42 +$13 +31%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 07 $80 −$79 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $23 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $180 −$177 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +93%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $46 +$24 +52%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $54 +$86 +162%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $1 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $34 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 60¢ $36 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 60¢ $79 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 40¢ $2 7d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 84¢ $4 7d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 40¢ $2 7d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 75¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 20¢ $3 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 7¢ $4 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 8d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $15 8d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $15 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 8d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 58¢ $3 8d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $51 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 26¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 28¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $6 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 6¢ $0 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.81 · official $2.38 (match) · 3500 history records