Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a50…caa8 crypto 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-8%) realized −$90 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%102W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$11
crypto 31% −$80
other 10% −$20
weather 2% −$10
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -34.0% -40.2% 27% 27% -44.6%
≤30d 56 -17.3% -25.2% 39% 39% -11.3%
≤90d 195 -8.5% -17.2% 51% 48% -16.3%
all 201 -9.1% -17.8% 51% 47% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 47% -18.2%
10% -25.6% 40% -26.0%
15% -32.8% 32% -33.2%
20% -39.4% 26% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses102 / 99
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions10
Markets (closed)201 / 212
History coverage152d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2 +185%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $13 −$12 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 24 $41 −$16 -38%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $10 −$5 -53%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $10 −$4 -37%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 23 $24 +$27 +109%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $15 −$1 -5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winner May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -86%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner May 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 22 $5 +$5 +100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $10 −$1 -5%
James Harden: Points O/U 17.5 May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $5 +$5 +89%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 20 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 20 $6 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +13%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 19 $20 +$20 +101%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +42%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $15 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 37¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $3 12h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 34¢ $1 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 18h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $1 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.00 · official $61.00 (match) · 448 history records