Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a4b…80c1 weather 308 markets active 2h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-2%) realized −$241 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate73%223W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$205
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% −$20
politics 0% −$16
other 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$9
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 81% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 59 -19.7% -27.4% 68% 8% -24.7%
all 307 +0.8% -8.8% 73% 33% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 33% -11.5%
10% -17.5% 14% -19.9%
15% -25.5% 7% -27.7%
20% -32.8% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$20 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses223 / 84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)307 / 308
History coverage379d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 4? May 29 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 3? May 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 13 Apr 12 $73 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9? Apr 09 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 6? Apr 06 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 5? Apr 05 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 5? Apr 05 $43 +$13 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on Apri Apr 04 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 4? Apr 04 $36 +$10 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 4? Apr 04 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 2? Apr 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 3? Apr 03 $39 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 2? Apr 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 1? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 30? Mar 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on March 30? Mar 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 1? Mar 30 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 30? Mar 30 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 29? Mar 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma Mar 30 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 28 Mar 29 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27? Mar 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 28? Mar 28 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 27 Mar 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 27 Mar 27 $58 $0 +0%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Mar 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on September Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on September Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on September Mar 27 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on September Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on September Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September Mar 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Se Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Too Late" during events with South Korean president on Mar 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on September Mar 27 $165 −$165 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $74 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $73 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $73 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $73 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $73 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $73 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $47 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $23 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $23 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $23 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $23 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $23 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $50 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $23 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $23 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $50 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $23 11d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $50 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 4? BUY No 99¢ $2 47d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 4? BUY No 99¢ $1 47d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 3? BUY No 97¢ $1 48d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 13 SELL No 98¢ $64 68d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 13 SELL No 98¢ $8 68d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 13 BUY No 99¢ $73 69d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $73 72d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 6? BUY No 77¢ $6 75d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 6? BUY No 85¢ $15 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.80 · official $73.80 (match) · 974 history records