Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4A 0x4a4b…bbca sports 746 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,726 (+14%) realized +$5,943 · open −$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%366W / 350L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$516est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$1,776
other 20% −$652
world 0% −$47
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 44% -12.1%
≤30d 285 +6.8% -3.4% 52% 51% -2.0%
≤90d 716 +5.2% -4.8% 51% 51% -6.5%
all 716 +5.2% -4.8% 51% 51% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 51% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 51% -15.5%
15% -22.3% 50% -23.6%
20% -29.9% 50% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$54 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized+$5,943
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses366 / 350
Est. fees paid−$516
Open positions7
Markets (closed)716 / 746
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 716 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 75¢ $117 $137 +$20 (+17%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $102 $99 −$3 (-3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $213 $6 −$206 (-97%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 9¢ $31 $6 −$25 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-2 Jun 27 $70 +$55 +78%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $27 +$73 +270%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1 Jun 26 $65 +$44 +67%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $47 +$43 +92%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND N Jun 26 $83 +$76 +91%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $50 +$50 +100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $40 +$60 +150%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AN Jun 26 $102 +$65 +64%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $108 +$176 +163%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $40 −$2 -6%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $117 −$117 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Wil Jun 25 $49 +$53 +109%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U Jun 25 $52 +$46 +89%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 25 $32 +$48 +150%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 24 $50 +$41 +83%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: Jun 24 $72 +$45 +63%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $76 +$124 +163%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $76 −$76 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $97 +$71 +73%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $49 +$51 +104%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$72 +71%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $32 +$48 +150%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $52 +$48 +92%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $44 +$36 +82%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $72 +$108 +150%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $76 +$58 +76%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $54 +$46 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Colombia BUY 10¢ $15 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 53¢ $109 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $46 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY 48¢ $38 10h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $40 10h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 10h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $43 11h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $32 14h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 AND Urugua BUY 15¢ $22 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 24¢ $36 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 24¢ $6 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 24¢ $6 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $35 15h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 52¢ $47 15h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 54¢ $41 15h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 15h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 54¢ $0 15h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1 BUY 59¢ $65 17h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 31h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 32h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $21 33h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 33h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 33h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $16 33h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $24 35h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 35h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $7 35h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $0 35h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 35h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $4 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.29 · official $643.38 · 3500 history records