Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a48…6653 crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-10%) realized −$43 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$3
world 22% −$36
finance 11% −$8
other 11% −$2
sports 1% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 27 -24.3% -31.5% 52% 41% -21.3%
all 27 -24.3% -31.5% 52% 41% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 41% -21.3%
10% -38.1% 30% -28.8%
15% -44.1% 22% -35.7%
20% -49.5% 11% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage70d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 03 $2 +$1 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 03 $4 $0 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 03 $8 +$1 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 03 $17 +$1 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 03 $27 +$9 +35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 24 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $13 +$4 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $8 +$2 +19%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 13 $45 +$77 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 13 $18 +$28 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 10 $27 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 10 $19 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY No 22¢ $2 56d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY No 22¢ $2 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY No 21¢ $3 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY No 21¢ $3 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY No 21¢ $4 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY No 20¢ $3 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY No 27¢ $2 56d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $10 56d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 56d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 95¢ $2 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 57d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 86¢ $5 58d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 58d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 58d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 58d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 58d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $8 58d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $9 59d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 90¢ $8 59d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 91¢ $4 59d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $12 59d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $7 59d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 72¢ $8 59d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $8 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.15 · official $48.15 (match) · 77 history records