Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:52:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4A 0x4a47…cfbb other 313 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$344 (+2%) realized +$345 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%162W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days+$721
14 days+$313
30 days+$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$247
sports 26% +$460
world 0% +$46
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.4% +0.8% 56% 56% +5.8%
≤30d 23 +15.5% +4.5% 57% 57% -0.8%
≤90d 72 -10.9% -19.4% 44% 42% -12.0%
all 312 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 43% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 43% -8.1%
10% -19.3% 41% -16.9%
15% -27.1% 40% -24.9%
20% -34.2% 38% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$50 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$345
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses162 / 150
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)312 / 313
History coverage243d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 59¢ 58¢ $144 $143 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $243 +$35 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $132 −$130 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $194 +$181 +93%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $124 +$125 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $714 +$1,407 +197%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,000 +$970 +97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $698 −$687 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $698 −$690 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $498 −$490 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $301 −$297 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $212 +$88 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $299 +$118 +40%
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) May 31 $199 −$196 -98%
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Will GAIS win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $59 +$70 +119%
Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-1.5) May 29 $49 +$88 +180%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) May 24 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $85 +$134 +158%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $144 +$239 +165%
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $311 −$306 -99%
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Kalmar FF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 16 $43 +$34 +79%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $102 +$116 +114%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $80 +$65 +81%
Will Vitória SC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $35 +$31 +89%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $86 +$71 +83%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $80 +$70 +89%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $96 +$90 +93%
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) May 04 $179 +$219 +122%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $182 −$4 -2%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $153 +$222 +146%
Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5) May 03 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $95 +$71 +74%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Getafe CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $250 −$245 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $146 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 61¢ $278 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 52¢ $243 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $132 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $194 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $124 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $714 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $1,000 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $698 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $698 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $498 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $301 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $212 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 8d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 71¢ $299 19d
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) BUY UD Almería 46¢ $199 19d
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 19d
Will GAIS win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 32¢ $51 20d
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 21d
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 21d
Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-1.5) BUY Vålerenga Fotball 35¢ $49 21d
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 21d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $59 21d
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) BUY FK Bodø/Glimt 54¢ $51 26d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 100¢ $218 26d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 38¢ $85 26d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 37¢ $144 27d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 55¢ $311 33d
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 38¢ $87 33d
Will Kalmar FF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.78 · official $142.78 (match) · 649 history records