Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a45…3fcb other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$23 (-16%) realized −$24 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$33
sports 20% +$1
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +62.3% +46.9% 71% 71% -18.6%
≤30d 8 +42.1% +28.5% 62% 62% -27.5%
≤90d 8 +42.1% +28.5% 62% 62% -27.5%
all 8 +42.1% +28.5% 62% 62% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.5% 62% -27.5%
10% +16.2% 62% -34.5%
15% +5.0% 62% -40.8%
20% -5.3% 50% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage21d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 28¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-48%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 18¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-61%)
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $13 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $6 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $38 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.18 · official $15.19 (match) · 19 history records