Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a44…e903 crypto 237 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$556 (-5%) realized −$556 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%116W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$423
14 days−$817
30 days−$817
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$287
sports 24% −$1,125
other 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +5.3% -4.8% 56% 55% +7.0%
≤30d 236 -8.3% -17.0% 49% 49% -16.0%
≤90d 236 -8.3% -17.0% 49% 49% -16.0%
all 236 -8.3% -17.0% 49% 49% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 49% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 48% -24.0%
15% -32.2% 46% -31.4%
20% -38.8% 43% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$41 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$556
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses116 / 120
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage14d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$16 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$42 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $114 +$107 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $48 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $100.00 · 610 history records