Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a42…be67 sports 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$18 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%61W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$6
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$27
other 10% −$11
world 10% −$10
weather 9% −$18
crypto 5% +$5
politics 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.0% -15.0% 44% 33% +2.8%
≤30d 119 -9.9% -18.5% 51% 34% -9.0%
≤90d 119 -9.9% -18.5% 51% 34% -9.0%
all 119 -9.9% -18.5% 51% 34% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 34% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 25% -17.7%
15% -33.4% 22% -25.6%
20% -40.0% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses61 / 58
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)119 / 126
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 46¢ 40¢ $42 $37 −$5 (-13%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 26¢ 42¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 47¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +128%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $14 +$17 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -69%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -95%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -32%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 7? Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 +$1 +22%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +75%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $4 +$3 +83%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +88%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $7 −$3 -41%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $6 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $2 $0 +9%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $12 −$3 -20%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $18 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +17%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $17 +$7 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2 +$2 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $4 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $4 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $4 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $4 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $3 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $4 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $3 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $4 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $2 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $2 28h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 38h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 38h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 6d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 37¢ $2 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 7d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.22 · official $104.23 (match) · 452 history records