Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4A 0x4a40…dcff crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$336 (+3%) realized +$336 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate82%67W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$802
7 days−$966
14 days−$872
30 days−$749
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$757
world 35% +$377
tech 13% +$44
other 12% −$192
finance 2% +$20
weather 1% −$5
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -27.9% -34.8% 50% 38% -34.7%
≤30d 23 -16.3% -24.3% 65% 43% -22.3%
≤90d 82 -6.5% -15.4% 82% 32% -14.0%
all 82 -6.5% -15.4% 82% 32% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 32% -14.0%
10% -23.5% 9% -22.2%
15% -30.9% 5% -29.7%
20% -37.7% 5% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$136 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses67 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage86d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $365 −$354 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $295 −$291 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $291 +$365 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $269 −$223 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $183 +$108 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $133 +$18 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $189 −$145 -77%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $256 +$84 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $174 +$107 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $209 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $267 +$19 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $183 −$183 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 18 $181 +$19 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $183 +$14 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $182 +$7 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $130 +$20 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $174 +$19 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $167 +$22 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $223 +$13 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $766 +$123 +16%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $61 +$3 +5%
Will Denmark be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $350 +$11 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 12? May 13 $127 +$28 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 13 $169 +$27 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $595 +$83 +14%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 08 $241 +$9 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 08 $282 +$29 +10%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $24 −$23 -97%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $359 +$210 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in March? Apr 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 03 $136 +$4 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 02 $272 +$23 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 1? Apr 02 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 1? Apr 02 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on April 1? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 1? Apr 01 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $524 −$284 -54%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +4%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026? Apr 01 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? Apr 01 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $365 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $291 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $189 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $133 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $128 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $128 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $174 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $159 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $209 2h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $246 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 90¢ $181 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 96¢ $182 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 93¢ $183 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $183 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 86¢ $130 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 90¢ $174 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $233 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 269 history records