Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a3f…f6d7 politics 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,495 (+1%) realized +$1,492 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%37W / 110L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,306per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$27
14 days+$88
30 days+$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$124
other 26% −$5
sports 14% +$1,592
culture 3% +$21
world 3% −$18
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +15.9% +4.8% 13% 13% -9.2%
≤90d 90 -6.4% -15.3% 8% 6% -9.2%
all 147 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 11% -8.8%
10% -18.2% 11% -17.6%
15% -26.1% 10% -25.5%
20% -33.4% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,680) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$16 · ×5.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$1,252
Realized+$1,492
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses37 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)147 / 149
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,306
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $822 $826 +$4 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $428 $427 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,631 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,188 −$3 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,477 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $7,526 −$8 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,622 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,132 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,388 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,438 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,508 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,989 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,821 −$4 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $66 +$78 +119%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $84 +$59 +70%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $4,352 −$7 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,323 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,653 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $2,773 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,872 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $4,564 −$5 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,805 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $3,018 −$5 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $63 +$118 +188%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $50 +$59 +119%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? May 20 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $6,178 −$7 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,590 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,255 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,680 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $2,887 −$5 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) May 03 $1,730 +$1,874 +108%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,661 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,992 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $962 19m
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $963 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $942 41h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $943 43h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $828 43h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $829 45h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 47h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $861 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $863 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,038 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,040 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $428 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,382 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,383 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,125 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,126 7d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,436 7d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,438 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,506 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,508 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,260 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,262 8d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $915 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $916 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $918 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $920 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,514 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,516 11d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 45¢ $66 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,252.37 · official $1,252.37 (match) · 478 history records