Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:02:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a3f…98e2 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-16%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$16
sports 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.6% -26.4% 33% 33% -11.8%
≤30d 6 -18.6% -26.4% 33% 33% -11.8%
≤90d 6 -18.6% -26.4% 33% 33% -11.8%
all 6 -18.6% -26.4% 33% 33% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 33% -11.8%
10% -33.4% 33% -20.2%
15% -39.9% 33% -27.9%
20% -45.8% 17% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$69 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $99 +$161 +163%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$23 -23%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$97 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL 99¢ $260 58m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 37¢ $99 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 12¢ $79 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: England 3 - 0 BUY 3¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 19¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records