Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a3e…c46f crypto 340 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%143W / 193L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$210
14 days−$169
30 days−$2,504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2,462
sports 7% +$124
other 5% +$1,594
world 1% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -15.9% -23.9% 50% 35% -10.2%
≤30d 335 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 33% -20.1%
≤90d 336 -22.9% -30.2% 43% 33% -12.3%
all 336 -22.9% -30.2% 43% 33% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 33% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 26% -20.7%
15% -43.0% 20% -28.4%
20% -48.6% 14% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$31 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses143 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)336 / 340
History coverage70d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $19 $30 +$11 (+58%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $19 $12 −$7 (-35%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+53%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 165 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $86 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $109 −$50 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$15 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $317 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $61 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $197 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $561 −$47 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $348 −$313 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $77 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $56 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$31 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$20 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $107 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $151 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $120 −$51 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $136 −$134 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $304 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $443 −$19 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $126 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $433 −$42 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $251 +$8 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $132 −$122 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$13 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$20 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.21 · official $46.21 (match) · 2037 history records