Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4A 0x4a3b…256e weather 562 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,756 (+36%) realized +$1,755 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%254W / 307L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$117
14 days+$180
30 days+$580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$1,641
other 1% +$8
world 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +33.1% +20.5% 52% 41% +9.3%
≤30d 185 +41.8% +28.3% 48% 40% +16.3%
≤90d 561 +38.4% +25.2% 45% 39% +19.9%
all 561 +38.4% +25.2% 45% 39% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.2% 39% +19.9%
10% ← realistic here +13.3% 33% +8.4%
15% +2.3% 30% -2.1%
20% -7.7% 28% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1,755
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses254 / 307
Open positions1
Markets (closed)561 / 562
History coverage82d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? Yes 42¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 22? Jun 22 $210 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 +$12 +440%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $13 −$5 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $11 +$20 +184%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $17 +$7 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $22 −$16 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $12 −$8 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 +$7 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? Jun 18 $9 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 18 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 +$6 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 −$3 -30%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$40 +171%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? Jun 17 $18 +$20 +108%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$14 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$19 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$22 +448%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$3 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$12 +103%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $25 +$20 +82%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +160%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $25 +$12 +49%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +131%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$4 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $22 +$17 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 32m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $131 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 86¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 18¢ $6 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? SELL Yes 81¢ $18 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 64¢ $3 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 63¢ $19 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 10¢ $4 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 30¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 21¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 26¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.77 · official $2.77 (match) · 1771 history records