Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a38…29b3 crypto 1777 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-4%) realized −$519 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%1700W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$493
7 days−$495
14 days−$504
30 days−$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 847 -10.5% -19.0% 87% 1% -45.2%
≤30d 1695 -5.8% -14.7% 91% 3% -31.0%
≤90d 1863 -5.4% -14.4% 91% 2% -25.4%
all 1863 -5.4% -14.4% 91% 2% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 2% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 0% -32.5%
15% -30.1% 0% -39.0%
20% -36.9% 0% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$519
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1700 / 163
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1863 / 1777
History coverage75d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1863 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.05 · official $2.05 (match) · 3500 history records