Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a35…4b42 crypto 822 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-2%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate78%640W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day66.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$39
14 days−$192
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$163
sports 3% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 340 -2.1% -11.4% 83% 34% -11.2%
≤30d 822 -1.6% -11.0% 78% 40% -12.8%
≤90d 822 -1.6% -11.0% 78% 40% -12.8%
all 822 -1.6% -11.0% 78% 40% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 40% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 23% -21.1%
15% -27.3% 15% -28.7%
20% -34.4% 11% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses640 / 182
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)822 / 822
History coverage13d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day66.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 822 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1603 history records