Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a35…cf6a other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$149 (-1%) realized −$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$11
politics 29% −$8
sports 16% −$130
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 90 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 130 -10.4% -18.9% 6% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 3% -10.2%
10% -26.7% 3% -18.8%
15% -33.8% 2% -26.6%
20% -40.3% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 122
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage120d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $164 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $154 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $167 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $242 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $145 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $159 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $122 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $128 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 22 $115 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $133 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $116 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 17 $306 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $422 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $126 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $161 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $291 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $138 −$1 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $158 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $435 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $288 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $129 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $463 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $157 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $122 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $23 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $23 3h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 24h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 27h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 7d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 7d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $25 10d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 15d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $19 16d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 17d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 17d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 17d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 18d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $115 20d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $145 24d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $145 25d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 380 history records