Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4A 0x4a31…101d crypto 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$293 (+2%) realized +$293 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate93%381W / 27L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$37
14 days+$235
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -4.2% -13.3% 88% 32% -11.6%
≤30d 408 +2.7% -7.0% 93% 43% -8.0%
≤90d 408 +2.7% -7.0% 93% 43% -8.0%
all 408 +2.7% -7.0% 93% 43% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 43% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 1% -16.8%
15% -24.1% 0% -24.8%
20% -31.5% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$39 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$293
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses381 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)408 / 408
History coverage26d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 408 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $137 +$8 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $65 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $61 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $97 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $53 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $38 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $72 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $99 +$12 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $96 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $58 −$58 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $60 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $60 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $92 +$26 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $53 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $23 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $92 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $12 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $137 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $65 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $61 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $61 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 960 history records