Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4a30…86a3 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$58 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%51W / 4L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$1,209per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4,485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$59
other 6% +$4
sports 4% −$4
tech 4% +$3
culture 2% −$1
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +0.2% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,277) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.33 per $1 lost it wins $10.33
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$4,485
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses51 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage244d
Avg bet$1,209
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $4,483 $4,485 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $4,479 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 15-21? Jun 22 $687 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 15-21? Jun 22 $3,736 +$4 +0%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 17 $1,150 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $1,139 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $1,138 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Apr 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 16 Jan 17 $1,279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 14 Jan 15 $1,278 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 13? Jan 14 $1,277 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on January 10? Jan 11 $1,274 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 8? Jan 09 $445 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 8? Jan 09 $829 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 6? Jan 07 $1,273 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $368 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $903 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 4? Jan 05 $431 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on January 4? Jan 05 $840 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 2? Jan 03 $1,269 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in December? Jan 01 $1,266 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 30? Dec 31 $1,264 +$3 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 December 22-28? Dec 29 $1,263 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on December 28? Dec 29 $1,261 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of December 22 above $270? Dec 27 $1,260 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on December 25? Dec 26 $1,259 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 23? Dec 24 $1,258 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 22? Dec 23 $1,256 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 15-21? Dec 22 $1,255 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 20? Dec 21 $1,254 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of December 15 above $340? Dec 20 $1,253 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 18? Dec 19 $1,251 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 17? Dec 18 $1,250 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 16? Dec 17 $1,249 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,600 on December 15? Dec 16 $1,248 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 13? Dec 14 $1,246 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 12? Dec 13 $1,245 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 12 $35 $0 +1%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 12 $1,285 −$1 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $1,287 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k November 3-9? Nov 10 $1,286 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 8? Nov 09 $316 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 8? Nov 09 $968 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,800 and $3,900 on November 7? Nov 08 $537 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 7? Nov 08 $745 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $1,281 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 5? Nov 06 $1,280 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $3.00 and $3.10 on November 4? Nov 05 $1,279 +$1 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 04 $1,279 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,483 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,479 20h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $687 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $3,736 3d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 10d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 66d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 100¢ $1,150 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,139 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,138 76d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $35 157d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 16 BUY No 100¢ $1,279 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 14 BUY No 100¢ $1,278 160d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,277 162d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on January 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,274 164d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $445 167d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $829 167d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,273 168d
Will Solana reach $150 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $368 169d
Will Solana dip to $120 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $903 169d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 4? BUY No 100¢ $431 171d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on January 4? BUY No 100¢ $840 171d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 2? BUY No 100¢ $1,269 172d
Will Solana reach $150 in December? BUY No 100¢ $1,266 174d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,264 175d
Will Solana dip to $110 December 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $1,263 176d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on December 28? BUY No 100¢ $1,261 178d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of December 22 above $270? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,260 179d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on December 25? BUY No 100¢ $1,259 181d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,258 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,485.42 · official $4,485.42 (match) · 128 history records