Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a30…701b
other · 26 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage571d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 0 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championship? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Sep 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Aug 26 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? May 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? May 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $0 $0 +0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 14 $0 $0 -17%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 03 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% $0
sports 29% $0
politics 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 24d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 24d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 55d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 56d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 79d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 79d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 94d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 94d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $9 115d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $9 115d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $10 143d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $10 143d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 180d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 180d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 205d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 205d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 232d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 232d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $11 262d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $11 264d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 292d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 292d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 329d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 329d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 329d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $1 330d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 363d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -8.3% -17.0% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records