Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a2f…e889 weather 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86 (-6%) realized −$106 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate82%47W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day59.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 33% -15.4%
≤30d 57 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 33% -15.4%
≤90d 57 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 33% -15.4%
all 57 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 33% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 33% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 21% -23.5%
15% -27.1% 12% -30.9%
20% -34.2% 7% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses47 / 10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day59.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $48 $62 +$14 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 74¢ 99¢ $16 $22 +$5 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Yes 85¢ 83¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $61 +$11 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $35 −$24 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$5 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 70¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 80¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.18 · official $129.18 (match) · 227 history records