Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a2b…af20
world · 153 markets active 10h ago
0.0score
−$133,107 -41%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$131,529 · open −$3,761
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$82,899
Realized−$131,529
Unrealized−$3,761
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses37 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions96
Markets (closed)254 / 153
Avg bet$2,147
Trades / day160.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 96 History 254 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135,534
7 days−$138,215
14 days−$124,040
30 days−$131,529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $6,560 $7,668 +$1,108 (+17%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 60¢ 72¢ $5,437 $6,492 +$1,056 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $4,115 $5,460 +$1,345 (+33%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $3,984 $4,706 +$722 (+18%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 33¢ 26¢ $4,580 $3,640 −$940 (-21%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3,200 $3,500 +$300 (+9%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $2,832 $3,220 +$388 (+14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 40¢ 80¢ $1,210 $2,398 +$1,189 (+98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $1,860 $2,010 +$150 (+8%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,942 $1,969 +$27 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 43¢ 32¢ $2,593 $1,950 −$643 (-25%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 17¢ 12¢ $2,380 $1,750 −$630 (-26%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 18¢ $3,660 $1,750 −$1,910 (-52%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 30¢ 80¢ $600 $1,610 +$1,010 (+168%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 17¢ 39¢ $690 $1,556 +$866 (+126%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 56¢ 84¢ $900 $1,352 +$452 (+50%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ 66¢ $860 $1,310 +$450 (+52%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $960 $1,240 +$280 (+29%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 58¢ 60¢ $1,160 $1,190 +$30 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 68¢ 59¢ $1,370 $1,180 −$190 (-14%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $1,440 $1,170 −$270 (-19%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 56¢ 56¢ $1,120 $1,110 −$10 (-1%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 69¢ $210 $1,035 +$825 (+393%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 53¢ 64¢ $846 $1,032 +$186 (+22%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 25¢ 62¢ $398 $984 +$586 (+147%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Jun 12 $333 −$408 -122%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $591 −$591 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $329 −$329 -100%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $574 −$574 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $6,181 −$7,097 -115%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 12 $403 −$273 -68%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 12 $1,993 −$1,808 -91%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? Jun 12 $894 −$894 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2,883 −$1,322 -46%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? Jun 12 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29? Jun 12 $248 −$248 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 12 $552 +$1,313 +238%
Will FalleN retire by June 1? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will "Monster" be said during the CS IEM Rio 2026 Grand Final? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 12 $3,140 −$3,140 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 12 $4,385 −$3,423 -78%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 12 $549 −$549 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 12 $6,357 −$6,357 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to Apr Jun 12 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $398 −$398 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $940 −$940 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2,691 −$2,601 -97%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? Jun 12 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Jun 12 $1,320 −$1,919 -145%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $907 −$636 -70%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $163 −$134 -82%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Jun 12 $660 −$660 -100%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $657 −$657 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? Jun 12 $348 −$453 -130%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $580 −$580 -100%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $2,137 −$2,137 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Jun 12 $3,470 −$3,121 -90%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? Jun 12 $384 −$384 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 12 $250 −$120 -48%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Jun 12 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $605 −$605 -100%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Jun 12 $553 −$553 -100%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $560 −$560 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% −$24,640
crypto 30% +$34,196
politics 14% −$1,544
other 11% −$2,111
tech 4% −$1,757
finance 2% +$995
culture 1% −$1,350
sports 0% −$640
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $606 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $225 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $264 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $536 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $203 11h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $159 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $851 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $56 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $67 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $242 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $69 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 57¢ $474 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 57¢ $96 13h
Clavicular sentenced to prison? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $158 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $12 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $11 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $11 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $8 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $8 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $6 13h
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? BUY No 21¢ $25 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-60.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -74.4% -76.8% 10% 9% -73.3%
≤30d 254 -56.8% -60.9% 15% 13% -39.1%
≤90d 254 -56.8% -60.9% 15% 13% -39.1%
all 254 -56.8% -60.9% 15% 13% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover160.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.9% 13% -39.1%
10% -64.6% 11% -44.9%
15% ← realistic here -68.1% 9% -50.3%
20% -71.2% 9% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82,898.74 · official $82,899.04 (match) · 3500 history records