Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4A 0x4a2b…1dc4 other 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate19%19W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$7
other 35% −$9
politics 6% −$6
crypto 4% −$26
culture 3% −$11
world 3% +$50
finance 2% −$5
tech 1% −$2
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 12% -4.5%
≤30d 17 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 12% -4.5%
≤90d 47 -5.2% -14.2% 13% 6% -8.9%
all 100 -9.2% -17.8% 19% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 8% -9.7%
10% -25.7% 6% -18.4%
15% -32.9% 4% -26.3%
20% -39.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses19 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage543d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $78 $86 +$8 (+11%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? No 15¢ 20¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+30%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 40¢ 48¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $3 $0 -8%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 22 $31 $0 -2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -3%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 22 $4 $0 -4%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $18 −$2 -12%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 22 $50 −$1 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 Jun 22 $35 −$1 -3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Jun 22 $7 $0 -7%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Jun 22 $31 $0 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 22 $3 $0 -17%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Jun 22 $8 $0 -6%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? Jun 22 $26 +$4 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $66 +$34 +52%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 17 $7 −$4 -54%
Ebola emergency by June 30? May 17 $4 −$1 -32%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 16 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $49 −$1 -2%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? May 16 $1 $0 -18%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? May 16 $13 −$1 -7%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 16 $0 $0 -3%
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 25 and 49 points May 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May? May 16 $20 −$1 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 16 $11 $0 -3%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? May 16 $8 −$1 -10%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 16 $16 −$1 -8%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? May 16 $19 $0 -2%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 16 $5 $0 +4%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? May 16 $5 −$1 -30%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 16 $90 −$2 -2%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 16 $80 −$1 -2%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? May 16 $18 $0 -3%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 16 $56 −$3 -5%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? May 16 $9 −$1 -15%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 16 $55 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 16 $20 +$5 +27%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 16 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 10 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 10 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 10 $86 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 5¢ $2 8m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 40¢ $20 9m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 62¢ $31 9m
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 10m
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 11m
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? BUY No 15¢ $1 12m
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? BUY No 15¢ $6 13m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 62¢ $31 23m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 40¢ $20 24m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 64¢ $32 40m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 5¢ $3 41m
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 10¢ $0 44m
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 10¢ $0 45m
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 10¢ $3 46m
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 10¢ $0 49m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 50m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 50m
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 10¢ $0 51m
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 10¢ $0 52m
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 10¢ $0 54m
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 10¢ $2 54m
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 22? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 1h
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 22? BUY Yes 43¢ $18 1h
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $7 1h
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $8 1h
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $0 1h
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $9 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $34 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.75 · official $105.75 (match) · 285 history records