Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

4A 0x4a29…9dde sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 229d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5,580 (+96%) realized +$5,677 · open −$97

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +176% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +150% what you keep after slip

Net edge+150%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%11W / 8L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$278per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$62est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$47

7 days+$545

14 days+$5,543

30 days+$5,541

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+149.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+18.0%	+6.7%	50%	50%	+6.7%
≤30d	16	+221.9%	+191.2%	69%	69%	+50.3%
≤90d	16	+221.9%	+191.2%	69%	69%	+50.3%
all	19	+176.0%	+149.7%	58%	58%	+49.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+149.7%	58%	+49.2%
10%	+125.8%	53%	+35.0%
15%	+104.0%	53%	+21.9%
20%	+84.0%	42%	+10.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +106% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +176% · $-wt +104% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +337% → late +31% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$595 vs −$129 · ×4.63 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.37 per $1 lost it wins $6.37

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage

Net worth$372

Realized+$5,677

Unrealized−$97

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses11 / 8

Est. fees paid−$62

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage229d

Avg bet$278

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	No	41¢	34¢	$245	$206	−$39 (-16%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Under	79¢	58¢	$224	$166	−$58 (-26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spain (-5.5)	Jun 21	$221	+$47	+21%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June?	Jun 16	$216	+$314	+145%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$53	+$124	+234%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$152	−$100	-66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$505	−$354	-70%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners	Jun 14	$507	−$500	-99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$1,345	+$1,065	+79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$630	+$716	+114%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$422	+$210	+50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$270	+$153	+57%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 13	$102	+$60	+59%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$71	+$36	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 09	$59	+$3,262	+5532%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?	Jun 08	$111	+$561	+505%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Jun 06	$585	−$2	-0%
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Mar 04	$52	−$16	-32%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15?	Nov 05	$3	−$2	-83%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20?	Nov 05	$3	−$3	-92%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	79¢	$226	5m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	BUY No	33¢	$51	1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	BUY No	40¢	$46	1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5)	SELL Saudi Arabia	100¢	$268	1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	82¢	$221	2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	BUY No	45¢	$51	3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	BUY No	45¢	$102	3h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June?	SELL No	90¢	$529	5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	33¢	$51	6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$176	6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$53	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	SELL Over	9¢	$52	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	BUY Over	25¢	$152	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	15¢	$151	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	48¢	$505	6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners	BUY Over	54¢	$507	6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,410	6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$1,345	7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,347	7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	46¢	$630	7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$632	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$423	7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	66¢	$422	8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$270	8d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$162	8d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$107	8d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	66¢	$71	8d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	62¢	$102	8d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June?	BUY No	31¢	$6	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.76 · official $371.82 (match) · 69 history records