Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a27…7bab politics 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$18
politics 30% −$15
sports 10% −$6
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 110 -3.0% -12.2% 8% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage139d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $298 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $358 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $291 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $231 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $283 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $223 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $897 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $309 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $246 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,649 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $314 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $312 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $278 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $318 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 14 $252 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $295 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $328 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $291 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $280 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 08 $296 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $245 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 07 $240 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $882 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 22d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $305 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $305 24d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $299 31d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $299 31d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $251 32d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $251 32d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $291 33d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $291 33d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $256 34d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $256 35d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $310 35d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $310 35d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $231 35d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $231 35d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 36d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 36d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $223 37d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $223 37d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $290 38d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $290 39d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $252 39d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 39d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 354 history records