Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4A 0x4a25…0d1a other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 662d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$24
crypto 6% −$8
sports 5% +$31
world 4% $0
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +27.8% +15.6% 42% 38% -10.3%
≤30d 24 +27.8% +15.6% 42% 38% -10.3%
≤90d 24 +27.8% +15.6% 42% 38% -10.3%
all 31 +14.3% +3.4% 42% 39% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 39% -10.4%
10% -6.5% 39% -19.0%
15% -15.5% 39% -26.8%
20% -23.8% 23% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

662d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage662d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +104%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$20 +194%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 +$5 +37%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +414%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$7 -31%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 Jun 14 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$30 -71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $112 −$6 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 13 $57 +$5 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -10%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $6 +$3 +51%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-17? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? Sep 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-09-17? Sep 17 $3 −$1 -49%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? Sep 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Manchester United beat Brighton? Aug 22 $1 −$1 -100%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? Aug 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $16 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $10 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 35¢ $11 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $6 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 22¢ $4 27h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 78¢ $5 27h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $6 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $5 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $5 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 SELL 12¢ $6 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $15 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $10 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- SELL 57¢ $62 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 51¢ $57 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 82¢ $45 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.16 · official $26.06 · 79 history records