Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4A 0x4a21…c933 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$301 (+8%) realized +$565 · open −$264
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$904now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$176
7 days+$258
14 days+$265
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$739
other 13% +$185
sports 4% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +43.3% +29.7% 92% 92% +31.7%
≤30d 17 +37.2% +24.2% 88% 88% +30.0%
≤90d 20 +26.8% +14.7% 75% 75% -20.2%
all 20 +26.8% +14.7% 75% 75% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 75% -20.2%
10% +3.8% 70% -27.8%
15% -6.3% 65% -34.8%
20% -15.5% 35% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$100 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$904
Realized+$565
Unrealized−$264
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage170d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $1,128 $863 −$264 (-23%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $222 +$131 +59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$13 -62%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $121 +$22 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $571 −$354 -62%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 13 $600 −$120 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 9h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 30h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 9d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 9d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $903.69 · official $903.69 (match) · 83 history records