Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
4A 0x4a20…8cac crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$55 (+4%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate100%20W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$144
14 days+$154
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.9% +2.2% 100% 32% +0.6%
≤30d 20 +12.8% +2.0% 100% 30% +0.5%
≤90d 20 +12.8% +2.0% 100% 30% +0.5%
all 20 +12.8% +2.0% 100% 30% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 30% +0.5%
10% -7.7% 5% -9.1%
15% -16.6% 5% -17.9%
20% -24.8% 5% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses20 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $68 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $67 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $49 +$52 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $63 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $47 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $99 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $154 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $151 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $83 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $134 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $91 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $97 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $49 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $28 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $99 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $38 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $32 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $154 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $151 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $83 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $134 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $91 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $97 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.46 · official $196.46 (match) · 42 history records