Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a1c…9867 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,426 (-12%) realized −$22,783 · open +$357
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%40W / 24L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,791per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$537est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5,357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$630
7 days+$10,847
14 days−$6,892
30 days−$26,079
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$36,407
sports 23% +$17,325
crypto 23% −$6,640
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +47.4% +33.4% 50% 50% +4.0%
≤30d 64 +28.6% +16.3% 62% 52% -23.0%
≤90d 64 +28.6% +16.3% 62% 52% -23.0%
all 64 +28.6% +16.3% 62% 52% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.3% 52% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here +5.2% 44% -30.3%
15% -5.0% 33% -37.1%
20% -14.3% 25% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,142 vs −$2,989 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$5,357
Realized−$22,783
Unrealized+$357
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses40 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$537
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage17d
Avg bet$2,791
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 49¢ 52¢ $5,000 $5,357 +$357 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $4,026 +$1,080 +27%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2,019 −$2,000 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $215 −$205 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$75 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $513 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$147 +554%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3,323 +$982 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$129 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $111 −$105 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,206 +$3,332 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $651 +$873 +134%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10,051 −$10,000 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $115 −$112 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 +$662 +1288%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $1,526 +$2,030 +133%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12,337 +$3,780 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10,065 +$2,278 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8,392 +$3,658 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12,754 +$5,541 +43%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $607 +$459 +76%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1,220 +$1,558 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $35 −$29 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $114 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$121 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 07 $253 +$94 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 07 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $78 +$122 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 07 $67 −$64 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $104 −$100 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $1,319 +$1,230 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$27 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $1,337 +$1,126 +84%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $2,652 −$2,632 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20,608 −$20,505 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 01 $17,868 +$638 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $1,004 +$57 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 01 $102 +$39 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $5,076 31m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 68¢ $2,019 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $2,013 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1,024 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $2,013 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 14¢ $513 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 77¢ $3,323 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $1,012 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $7,538 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $4,206 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,357.14 · official $5,357.14 (match) · 169 history records