Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a1b…495b
crypto · 268 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$145 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$180 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses124 / 139
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)263 / 268
History coverage49d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 5 History 263 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$13
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 45¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 +$6 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$116
crypto 25% −$39
politics 8% −$3
world 7% −$5
other 4% −$16
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $10 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -27.5% -34.4% 43% 43% -18.8%
≤30d 184 -19.7% -27.4% 53% 42% -18.9%
≤90d 263 -25.6% -32.7% 47% 36% -27.3%
all 263 -25.6% -32.7% 47% 36% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 36% -27.3%
10% -39.1% 30% -34.3%
15% -45.0% 18% -40.6%
20% -50.4% 10% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.93 · official $4.93 (match) · 732 history records