Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a19…a961 crypto 1173 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$382 (-1%) realized −$382 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%797W / 506L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day137.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,392
7 days−$2,670
14 days−$2,010
30 days−$1,395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 446 -51.7% -56.3% 33% 30% -22.7%
≤30d 1303 -16.4% -24.3% 61% 38% -12.2%
≤90d 1303 -16.4% -24.3% 61% 38% -12.2%
all 1303 -16.4% -24.3% 61% 38% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 38% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 29% -20.6%
15% -38.2% 21% -28.3%
20% -44.2% 15% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$382
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses797 / 506
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1303 / 1173
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day137.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1303 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $18 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $43 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $46 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $44 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $45 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $41 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $35 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $33 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records